Japan ruling bloc loses lower house majority

Japan's ruling camp lost its majority in the House of Representatives in Sunday's election, dealing a heavy blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba who must now look for additional support outside the coalition to run a stable government.

Ishiba, however, voiced eagerness to form a new government led by his party. Opposition parties, composed of both liberal and right-leaning forces, are also expected to struggle to cooperate in forming a coalition due to differences in their policy goals.

The dismal results underscored deepening distrust in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party due to a slush funds scandal, signaling a seismic shift in the support that enabled it to return to power in 2012 after a spell in opposition.

The coalition would still fall short of a majority in the powerful lower house even if Ishiba accepts back into the LDP former party lawmakers who ran as independents after being denied LDP endorsement over the scandal. The party fell short of 200 seats in the 465-member chamber.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which had presented itself as an alternative to a ruling party seen as awash in "secret money," saw a substantial increase in seats as it aims to bring about a change of government.

The LDP-Komeito coalition missed its goal of crossing the majority line of 233 in the lower house, having held a combined 288 seats before the election.

The post-election outlook is uncertain, with some major opposition parties that made notable gains rejecting the possibility of joining a government with the ruling bloc.

A grim-looking Ishiba described the election results as "tough" as they came in. "We were far from gaining the public's understanding" over the slush funds scandal, Ishiba said. The LDP chief expressed hope to keep leading the government to promote the coalition's policies.

His gambit to dissolve the powerful chamber only eight days after taking office on Oct 1 and call an election backfired.

The LDP's woes deepened in the final days of the campaign after it was revealed that the party had provided 20 million yen each to local chapters headed by some scandal-hit, unendorsed candidates. Opposition leaders quickly ramped up criticism, accusing the ruling party of covertly supporting the candidates.

Komeito chief Keiichi Ishii, who took the post only a month ago, lost his seat, becoming the first head of the coalition partner to suffer a defeat since 2009. The party backed by the lay-Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, which held 32 seats before the election, lost around 10 of them.

Farm minister Yasuhiro Ozato was defeated by his opposition party rival. Justice Minister Hideki Makihara also lost his seat.

The CDPJ, meanwhile, secured over 140 seats, up sharply from 98. "Voters chose which party would be the best fit to push for political reforms. That's why we've received this much support," said CDPJ chief Yoshihiko Noda.

Political observers have suggested that the LDP might accept back into the party those who were denied endorsements due to their involvement in underreporting income from fundraising events.

Still, former education minister Hakubun Shimomura, along with about half of the some 10 who were denied endorsement, lost their seats. All the candidates who were forced to run as independents had close ties with the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who exerted significant influence over the LDP even after his stepping down as leader in 2020.

Another option for the ruling coalition would be to seek cooperation from the Democratic Party for the People, which saw its seats more than quadruple from seven.

The party's leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, however, has rejected the idea of joining the ruling coalition, while the Japan Innovation Party, another opposition force, is also negative about working with the LDP-Komeito group.

Voter turnout stood at 53.81 percent, according to a Kyodo News estimate, around 2 percentage points lower than in the previous election in 2021 and likely the third lowest in the postwar era. The number of female lawmakers reached 55, a record high.

In Sunday's election, each voter cast two ballots -- one to choose a candidate in a single-seat constituency and the other to select a party in the proportional representation section. The final election results are expected to be clear by early Monday.

Ishiba has pledged to prioritize easing the negative impact of inflation on households, bolstering Japan's defenses against security threats from its neighbors and enhancing regional economies and disaster resilience.

The deepening funds scandal has continued to haunt the LDP since it emerged in late 2023, driving down public support to levels that ultimately forced Ishiba's predecessor Fumio Kishida to give up on seeking reelection as party chief.

The lower house election results will pose a daunting challenge for Ishiba as he seeks to rebuild the LDP before the House of Councillors election next summer.

Analysts also say the election outcome will make it almost impossible for Ishiba to fulfill his key promise of initiating a proposal to revise the country's Constitution through parliament before a national referendum, which requires approval by a two-thirds majority in parliament.